The Deepening Chaos in Sinai

THE GROWING instability in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula represents one of the most dangerous, and most anticipated, crises in the Middle East. Even before the 2011 Egyptian revolution, the security vacuum in the Sinai allowed criminals and terrorists, including those with an ideology akin to Al Qaeda’s, to expand their operations. In the chaos after the revolution, these problems have worsened. Meanwhile, various Palestinian groups use the Sinai as a launching pad for attacks against Israel. The large-scale smuggling of weapons and civilian goods to and through this territory—much of it bound for Gaza—has fostered an illicit economy in both Gaza and Sinai while helping Hamas bolster its military capacity and political grip over Gaza. Increasing violence and instability in Sinai could complicate Egypt’s already-troubled transition and raise the prospect of renewed large-scale conflict between Israel and Hamas. And the reverse is also true, as witnessed by the dramatic spike in deadly violence in Sinai following the ouster of Egypt’s Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in July. In addition to instability in Egypt, prospects for an Egyptian-Israeli military clash also could be heightened, in which case the United States could find itself caught between its closest ally in the region, Israel, and a vital Arab partner on which regional stability depends.

read more